CleanTechnica•about 1 month ago
2100 Transition Scenarios Need A Better Population Denominator
Key Takeaway
Developers and large power consumers must scrutinize long-term energy demand forecasts, as flawed population assumptions could lead to misjudged investment strategies and infrastructure planning for the energy transition.
AI Summary
- •Long-term energy transition scenarios for 2100 are likely flawed if they project future energy demand based on outdated 20th-century population growth models (2.5B in 1950 to 8B today).
- •Incorrect population denominators could lead to overestimations of future energy demand, impacting the scale and timing of necessary generation and infrastructure investments.
- •Developers and large power consumers should critically evaluate long-term demand forecasts, as a slower or declining population growth could significantly alter future market dynamics and the need for new capacity.
Topics
capacity-marketdatacenteremissionsfinancingpolicyppasolarstoragewind
Article Content
One of the easiest ways to get 2100 wrong is to carry the 20th-century population curve forward as if it still defines the future. The world went from about 2.5 billion people in 1950 to more than 8 billion today, and that expansion shaped modern assumptions about food, energy, cities, ... [continued] The post 2100 Transition Scenarios Need A Better Population Denominator appeared first on CleanTechnica .